What do I want to do?

What do I want to do? Run the Edinburgh Marathon 2013 in 2hrs 58m or faster. Why do I want to do it? My self-image of running has changed from a slow-plodder to a fast, strong club runner. Running a marathon in under 3 hours is what good runners do - anyone can attain this goal with the correct training and mental determination, which I have. I have run a a sub-40 10k, sub-85 half, low-18s 5k, so a sub-3 marathon is achievable. It is within my grasp and I would like to benefit from the confidence achieving this will give to me. What are my doubts? Runners who are more naturally road-runners with longer training schedules specific to marathon took a good few times to achieve this If I don't believe I can do it, how can I possibly do it? A few indicators of sub-3 weren't there in my last training run My half marathon time might not be fast enough I've not ran a good marathon yet in five previous attempts. How can I expect to do this now? Most people run under 8 minute pace all the time... I can't do this in training I ran out of energy in my last run, surely I'll do the same in the marathon? There will be a headwind in the way back How do I know I can still do it, despite these doubts? These runners are not as good at running as I am. They may have some faster times due to concentrating on road running for years but I am smarter, tougher and know how to make my body respond better. I am used to running long miles on tired legs from my ultra and long hill racing history. Stuc a'Chroin in 2012 I ran the last three miles of a three hour race at sub-3 marathon pace, These runners are not as tough as I am and I can squeeze every last ounce of energy and speed out of my body I do believe I can do it. Completing this study has shown me there are numerous indicators confirming it is possible. :-P The last six months has been my most successful spell of running ever. I have run a 30 second PB at the Edinburgh Parkrun, a 30 second PB at Falkirk Parkrun, a 54 second PB in the winter fiddlers, a 1m20s PB in the summer fiddlers, a 2 minute PB on a windy 10k to run sub-40 for the "first" time (a 5 year goal), a 5 minute PB in the half marathon with an injured right leg beating Kenton and Stephen Malcolm by over 3 minutes and running my first and second sub-40 10ks back to back, with 1.1 miles added on, I beat Chloe in the Gartmorn 6 mile race and beat Kenton's best time for the event, I ran 18:48 in the National Road Relays short leg following 28 miles in the preceding days, I ran a 2 minute PB at the Carnethy 5 and a 30 second PB at Hunter's Big Trot with minimal hill training. All of this with no tapering, much of it injured and much of it with no speed work. I could beat my Alloa half time by c. 2 minutes now. The extra confidence, a bit of a taper and a fully functioning right leg would make all the difference. My Alloa half time is also fast enough to run a sub-3 time anyway. Until last year I'd never run a good half marathon - now I've run two. Before I did it in Jedburgh I wasn't sure I'd be capable of a sub-90 half.... I could do this in training now. Before my 3h15m Pentland Skyline, I wasn't sure I'd get under 3h40m - I've done this three times now and could do so in training. In previous attempts I've not done enough training or not had a specific goal resulting in me giving up. This year I've run 1000 miles specific to this race - 1000! 54 mile average per week compared to c. 30 in previous years... hence the improvement! This year I've ran faster miles on tired legs - I was jogging home at 7.15 then 6.50 pace after a hill race the day before and 15 miles in! In the past I'd have jogged these at 8.30 pace. I've ran at least six 20+ mile road runs, including some hilly ones and several long flat ones with fast miles. Also ran several 16, 15 or 18 milers with loads of hills. I've also completed numerous 10 mile runs including sections of faster than marathon pace efforts in the middle, some the day before, some the day after a long run. 1000 miles remember! I can glide over the road at pace with no effort at all. Running is now ridiculously easy and after a good taper I'll be well rested and rearing to go. 18 miles at 6.48 pace will be a hard but I'm tough enough to manage that and then run the rest of the way home to finish in 2h58 or maybe slightly faster when I get close enough to the end for a final kick. 2h56 or 2h57 would be v. nice! Besides Dave doesn't think I can do it.... that's some good motivation! I have always saved my fast running for specific events, rather than training. Most people run too quickly too often. I save my efforts for my hard sessions. Look at how fit I got when I was just running easily over winter. I hardly ran sub-8 minute miles and I was suddenly fit enough to run the fiddlers in 21 minutes! This is how it works for all my running. I run slowly, I get fit. Pace isn't everything. But, I've now been running races more frequently and training at a faster pace. Last week, when I was supposedly tired I ran 4 fast miles at the fiddlers, 3 fast miles at the Parkrun and 8 fast miles on Sunday. That's 15 fast miles in a week all at sub-7 pace, and a few at sub-6 . I'd never do that before and I doubt most folks who consistently train at sub-8 pace will do it very often. Run your hard efforts hard and your easy efforts easy. That's how to get fitter. In my last run I didn't prepare properly. I had done a lot in the previous weeks and I should probably have tried a slightly easier approach. The good news is I made the mistake in training so won't be making it on marathon day. A proper fuelling strategy will ensure that I can reach the start line feeling fuelled up and ready to go. One or two more gels with some water (drinking to thirst) will be sufficient to have me full of energy until the last few miles when grit, determination and toughness will get me through. I'm looking forward to those last few miles when I know I'm going to do it and when I can stop holding back and put full effort in to the race. There will be a tailwind on the way out. Getting to 18 miles on pace, or slightly faster, will allow me to ensure the rest of the run is at a slightly easier pace. A headwind will also allow me to cruise past all of those struggling runners who've not trained as hard, or aren't as mentally tough as I am. Running past tired people is exceptionally good fun. I won't be overtaken in the later stages of the race. Thou shall not pass and all that. My sustained effort will ensure I am strong in the final stages. Anything else? 1000 miles. All those tough training runs I've completed. All those days when I went out running when I couldn't be bothered. I went out practically every day. I've never trained so hard for a race in all my time and I'm ready to cash all those miles in for one sustained effort. 2h 58m. Forget the psychological burden of sub-7 pace. That would have seemed impossible for a 10k previously. Now, with training it's possible for the full marathon distance. I always up my effort for races and my training this year has been good but I've still got a level I can increase to when a number is attached to my Lothian vest and running commences. That feeling you get in your legs after a few days off running? I'll have that. I won't waste it in the first few miles though, I'll save it for the last mile and a half, where I'll grit my teeth and finish this section faster than any other in the race. Crossing the finish line I'll be pleasantly exhausted. I love that feeling and would like to bottle it and store it for future. Once I've run a marathon at sub-3 pace I can look for future goals, knowing I've done something tough and challenging. My fastest marathon time will always begin with a 2. Owen could probably be classed as one of the better runners in the club at the moment. He ran a 17.39 at the Scottish Championships "5k" - as most folks ran faster than usual I'm not entirely convinced the distance was correct but it was a good time nonetheless. At the Falkirk Parkrun on Saturday I was determined to beat him. I knew it would be close as his other performances have been similar to mine recently. He shot off at the start trying to race with the leaders at probably 5.30 pace! I knew this was too fast and hung back. The 25ish metres he made on me stayed pretty constant to the bottom of the hill but I knew he'd be tiring and I had plenty in reserve. The climb was tough but I'd made 10-15 metres on Owen and had the downhill, my favourite, to kick-start my running again. With 800m to go I passed him. He wondered where I'd come from and I apparently kicked him back in to shape but my constant effort and final sprint finish managed to finish him off. Once I passed he had no chance of overtaking me again. None. Both recorded PBs but the significant factor is that mines was 2 seconds faster than his! The most important aspect was that I managed to overtake and beat him, pushing all the way to the line. Good racing preparation for the marathon.